几乎免费：廉价公共交通票对出行模式和火车延误的影响

Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Mario Liebensteiner", "affiliation": ["Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg"]}, {"name": "Jakob Losert", "affiliation": ["University of Salzburg"]}, {"name": "Sarah Necker", "affiliation": ["Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg", "Klinikum Fürth"]}, {"name": "Florian Neumeier", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Jörg Paetzold", "affiliation": ["Liechtenstein Institute", "University of Salzburg"]}, {"name": "Sebastian Wichert", "affiliation": ["Ifo Institute for Economic Research", "LMU Klinikum", "Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München"]}]

中文摘要

2022年6月至8月期间, 德国在全国范围内临时将不限次数乘坐地方和区域公共交通的票价降至每月9欧元。我们研究了这张9欧元车票所引致的出行行为变化和铁路拥堵效应。我们采用双重差分(DID)和事件研究设计, 分析来自移动网络设备的出行数据、道路监测站的行政交通流量计数以及列车到达数据。我们发现铁路出行大幅增加, 而汽车出行仅出现温和替代。列车出行增加约35%, 而汽车交通量下降1%—5%; 其中通勤时段的交通量降幅最小, 周末休闲出行以及前往旅游目的地的铁路出行增幅最大。此外, 列车需求激增通过加剧列车延误显著恶化了服务质量, 这一影响甚至外溢至长途列车。福利分析表明, 该政策主要发挥了生活成本转移支付的作用, 而减排收益有限, 意味着政府隐含的CO2减排成本较高。总体而言, 我们的研究结果表明, 深度折扣的全国性"任意通行"车票能够显著增加铁路出行, 但在缺乏配套运力扩展的情况下, 其产生的汽车向铁路替代有限, 并会使服务可靠性承压。

Abstract

During June–August 2022, Germany temporarily reduced the fare of unlimited local and regional public transport nationwide to €9 per month. We study changes in mobility behavior and rail congestion effects induced by this 9-Euro Ticket. We employ difference-in-differences and event-study designs to analyze data from mobile-network devices, administrative traffic counts from road monitoring stations, and train arrival data. We find a strong increase in rail travel with modest substitution away from cars. Train trips rise by around 35%, while car traffic falls by 1–5%, with the smallest traffic reductions during commuting times and the largest increases in rail travel for leisure purposes on weekends and to touristic destinations. Moreover, the train demand surge materially worsens service quality via elevated train delays, which even spill over to long-distance trains. A welfare analysis suggests that the policy mostly acted as a cost-of-living transfer with limited emissions benefits, implying high implicit CO2 government abatement costs. Overall, our findings indicate that deeply discounted, nationwide “go-anywhere” tickets can substantially increase railway travel, yet generate limited car-to-rail substitution and strain service reliability when implemented without accompanying capacity extensions.During June–August 2022, Germany temporarily reduced the fare of unlimited local and regional public transport nationwide to €9 per month. We study changes in mobility behavior and rail congestion effects induced by this 9-Euro Ticket. We employ difference-in-differences and event-study designs to travel data from mobile-network devices, administrative traffic counts from road monitoring stations, and train arrival data. We find a strong increase in rail travel with modest substitution away from cars. Train trips rise by around 35%, while car traffic falls by 1–5%, with the smallest traffic reductions during commuting times and the largest increases in rail travel for leisure purposes on weekends and to touristic destinations. Moreover, the train demand surge materially worsens service quality via elevated train delays, which even spill over to long-distance trains. A welfare analysis suggests that the policy mostly acted as a cost-of-living transfer with limited emissions benefits, implying high implicit CO2 government abatement costs. Overall, our findings indicate that deeply discounted, nationwide “go-anywhere” tickets can substantially increase railway travel, yet generate limited car-to-rail substitution and strain service reliability when implemented without accompanying capacity extensions.