搜寻互补性、总量波动与财政政策

Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · [{"name": "Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "University of Pennsylvania"]}, {"name": "Federico Mandelman", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta"]}, {"name": "Yang Yu", "affiliation": ["Shanghai Jiao Tong University"]}, {"name": "Francesco Zanetti", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "University of Oxford", "Centre for Economic Policy Research"]}]

中文摘要

我们结合多种微观和宏观数据集，记录了搜寻努力在企业间交易关系形成过程中所起作用的五个新事实。这些事实有力地表明搜寻互补性的存在。为研究这些事实对总量波动的影响，我们构建了一个动态一般均衡模型，并利用我们关于搜寻努力的新企业层面证据对该模型加以约束。该模型拟合了宏观和微观数据中标准模型此前未能解释的关键特征，包括随时间变化的双峰型产出分布，以及冲击的强烈非线性传播。此外，冲击波动率的变化会对宏观经济波动产生非线性影响，由此为“大缓和”提供了一种新的解释。最后，我们对财政政策的状态依赖效应提出了新的解释。

Abstract

Abstract We document five novel facts about the role of search effort in forming trading relationships among firms by combining a variety of micro and macro datasets. These facts strongly suggest the presence of search complementarities. To study the implications of these facts for aggregate fluctuations, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model, disciplined by our new firm-level evidence on search effort. The model matches key aspects of the macro and micro data that have remained unaccounted for by standard models, including the time-varying bimodal distribution of output and the strong, nonlinear propagation of shocks. Also, changes to the volatility of shocks have nonlinear effects on macroeconomic fluctuations that advance a novel interpretation of the Great Moderation. Finally, we provide a new account of the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy.