中文摘要
本文回顾了我在比较发展、殖民主义与制度变迁方面研究的主要动机与论点——这些研究常与詹姆斯·罗宾逊（James Robinson）和西蒙·约翰逊（Simon Johnson）合作完成。随后，我提出一个简单框架来组织这些思想，并将其与我在创新和技术方面的研究联系起来。该框架以效用—技术可能性前沿为核心，此前沿既刻画了给定技术条件下社会中可能的资源分配，也刻画了通过不同技术选择所能实现的资源分配。该框架强调了各类制度、市场结构、规范和意识形态如何影响沿前沿的移动以及前沿本身的位移，并对导致制度持续的社会力量、以及可能触发制度变迁的社会力量给出了简单的形式化表述。该框架还使我们能够概念化：在剧烈变动时期，既有的——有时甚至相当微小的——差异，会如何对繁荣与制度演进轨迹产生放大效应。由此，该框架揭示了不同剧烈变动时期之间的若干相似之处，包括欧洲殖民主义的开端、19世纪工业技术的传播（或未能传播），以及当今围绕人工智能的使用、采用与开发所做的种种决策。（JEL D02、D72、E23、F54、O43）
Abstract
This paper reviews the main motivations and arguments of my work on comparative development, colonialism, and institutional change, which was often carried out jointly with James Robinson and Simon Johnson. I then provide a simple framework to organize these ideas and connect them with my research on innovation and technology. The framework is centered around a utility-technology possibilities frontier, which delineates the possible distributions of resources in a society both for given technology and working via different technological choices. It highlights how various types of institutions, market structures, norms, and ideologies influence moves along the frontier and shifts of the frontier, and it provides a simple formalization of the social forces that lead to institutional persistence and those that can trigger institutional change. The framework also enables us to conceptualize how, during periods of disruption, existing—and sometimes quite small—differences can have amplified effects on prosperity and institutional trajectories. In this way, it suggests some parallels between different disruptive periods, including the onset of European colonialism, the spread (or lack thereof) of industrial technologies in the nineteenth century, and decisions related to the use, adoption, and development of AI today. (JEL D02, D72, E23, F54, O43)