危机中的财政政策与信贷供给
Fiscal Policy and Credit Supply in a Crisis
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Diana Bonfim", "affiliation": ["Banco de Portugal"]}, {"name": "Miguel A. Ferreira", "affiliation": ["Universidade Nova de Lisboa"]}, {"name": "Francisco Queiró", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Sujiao Zhao", "affiliation": ["Banco de Portugal"]}]
中文摘要
我们衡量了金融危机期间公共采购削减如何通过银行体系传导。在欧洲主权债务危机期间，葡萄牙政府将采购支出削减了相当于GDP 4.3%的规模。我们发现，这一削减使银行背负了来自政府承包商的不良贷款，进而导致其对其他企业的信贷供给持续减少。我们估计，银行层面的信贷供给相对于采购需求的弹性为2.5。在一般均衡模型中，我们的研究结果表明，危机中财政政策对信贷供给和产出具有较大影响。（JEL E23, E44, E62, G01, G21, H57）
Abstract
We measure how cuts to public procurement propagate through the banking system in a financial crisis. During the European sovereign debt crisis, the Portuguese government cut procurement spending by 4.3 percent of GDP. We find that this cut saddled banks with nonperforming loans from government contractors, which led to a persistent reduction in credit supply to other firms. We estimate a bank-level elasticity of credit supply with respect to procurement demand of 2.5. In a general equilibrium model, our findings point to large effects of fiscal policy on credit supply and output in a crisis. (JEL E23, E44, E62, G01, G21, H57)