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利用担保信贷适应气候风险:来自孟加拉国的证据

Adapting to Climate Risk With Guaranteed Credit: Evidence From Bangladesh
Econometrica · 2024 · [{"name": "G. J. Lane", "affiliation": ["Chicago Department of Public Health", "University of Chicago"]}]

中文摘要

气候变化正在增加极端天气事件的发生频率,而低收入国家受到的影响尤为严重。然而,这些国家往往面临市场摩擦,阻碍其采取有效的适应策略。本文探讨信贷市场失灵在限制气候适应中的作用。为此,我与一家大型小额信贷机构合作,在负面气候冲击发生后,通过一项“紧急贷款”向随机选取的一组农民提供担保信贷。我记录了三个关键结果。第一,能够获得紧急贷款的农民会选择成本较低的适应措施,并且在洪灾发生时受到的影响较轻。第二,我没有发现紧急贷款对未获得该贷款的家庭产生不利溢出效应的证据。最后,我证明提供紧急贷款对该小额信贷机构而言有利可图,因而是私营部门在类似情形下可以采用的一种可行工具。

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, with low‐income countries being disproportionately impacted. However, these countries often face market frictions that hinder their ability to adopt effective adaptation strategies. In this paper, I explore the role of credit market failures in limiting adaptation. To achieve this, I collaborate with a large microfinance institution and offer a randomly selected group of farmers access to guaranteed credit through an “Emergency Loan” following a negative climate shock. I document three key results. First, farmers who have access to the emergency loan make less costly adaptation choices and are less severely affected when a flood occurs. Second, I find no evidence of adverse spillover effects on households that did not receive the Emergency Loan. Finally, I demonstrate that providing the Emergency Loan is profitable for the microfinance institution, making it a viable tool for the private sector to employ in similar circumstances.
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