失业保险政策的微观与宏观效应：来自密苏里州的证据

中文摘要

我们提出了一种方法，用以联合衡量劳动者搜寻努力（微观效应）和职位空缺创造（宏观效应）对失业保险（UI）待遇期限变化的反应。为实施这一方法，我们利用密苏里州失业保险待遇期限的一次意外缩短，就失业保险对劳动力市场的影响提供准实验证据。在基准设定下，数据表明，密苏里州的这次期限缩短通过提高企业职位空缺创造和失业劳动者的搜寻努力，使就业找到率提高了12%。两个渠道对总效应的贡献大致相同。

Abstract

We develop a method to jointly measure the response of worker search effort (micro effect) and vacancy creation (macro effect) to changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. To implement this approach, we exploit an unexpected cut in UI durations in Missouri and provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of UI on the labor market. In our baseline specification, the data indicate that the cut in Missouri increased job-finding rates by 12% by raising firm vacancy creation and the search effort of unemployed workers. Both channels contribute roughly equally to the total effect.