中国共产党的崛起

中文摘要

我们考察了中国共产党（CCP）在战时中国的崛起。我们采用空间断点回归设计，并以若干指标（中高级党的干部、基层党组织和游击根据地）作为衡量抗日战争期间该党崛起的代理指标，发现该党在日军占领的县的增长幅度显著更大。然而，尽管该党在战前颇受欢迎，这些指标在当时并不具有统计显著性。我们识别出中国共产党政治崛起背后的两条主要渠道。第一，共产党利用了负责管理控制较为松散的占领区的“伪军”军事实力较弱这一点。第二，战争苦难激发了强烈的抗日情绪，进而推动了对中国共产党的支持；我们以平民伤亡和强奸案件作为战争所造成伤害的代理指标。最后，中国共产党在战时的影响力延续到了战后：原日占区在1950年至1980年间的党员密度显著更高。

Abstract

Abstract We examine the rise of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in wartime China. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design and several measures as proxies for the rise of the Party during the Sino-Japanese War (middle- to upper-rank party cadres, grassroots party organization, and guerrilla bases), we find that it grew significantly more in counties occupied by the Japanese Army. However, despite its popularity before the war, the same markers were not statistically significant at that time. We identify two primary channels behind the political ascendancy of the CCP. First, the communists took advantage of the militarily weaker “puppet troops” in charge of administering the loosely held occupied areas. Second, support for the CCP was fueled by a strong anti-Japanese sentiment spurred by war suffering, using civilian casualties and rape cases as proxies for the harm inflicted. Finally, the CCP’s wartime influence persisted after the war: former Japanese Occupied Areas exhibited a significantly higher density of party membership between 1950 and 1980.