无知是谁的福：取消强制婚前体检与中国农村的婚姻结果
Ignorance is Whose Bliss: The Repeal of Compulsory Premarital Health Examinations and Marital Outcomes in Rural China
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2026 · [{"name": "Li Han", "affiliation": ["École Supérieure des Sciences Économiques et Commerciales"]}, {"name": "Xinzheng Shi", "affiliation": ["King University", "Peking University"]}, {"name": "Ming-ang Zhang", "affiliation": ["Tsinghua University"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 健康对婚姻结果具有重要影响, 但健康信息在婚前可能一直被隐瞒。我们纳入社会经济地位 (SES) 与健康的匹配模型预测, 移除健康信息会使婚配排序转向 SES, 并可能降低儿童健康与福利, 尤其对低 SES 群体而言。我们以中国农村为背景, 围绕强制婚前健康检查 (PHE) 的废止对此进行实证考察。我们的双重差分估计依据政策前 PHE 比率比较了暴露程度不同的省份, 证实在处理强度更高的省份, 婚配排序模式的转变更大。基于健康的选择性匹配下降对儿童健康结果产生负面影响, 随后婚后主观幸福感也随之下降。在同样受到高度影响的省份内, 女性和低 SES 个体所遭受的损失大于其对应群体, 凸显出持续存在的性别与社会经济差异。
Abstract
Abstract Health matters for marital outcomes, but health information may remain concealed until marriage. Our matching model, which incorporates socioeconomic status (SES) and health, predicts that the removal of health information should shift sorting toward SES, potentially reducing child health and welfare, particularly for those with low SES. We empirically examine this in the context of rural China, following the repeal of compulsory premarital health examinations (PHE). Our difference-in-differences estimation, which compares provinces with varying levels of exposure based on pre-policy PHE rates, confirms a larger shift in sorting patterns in provinces with higher treatment intensity. The decrease in health-based assortative matching negatively affects child health outcomes, which is followed by a decline in postmarital subjective well-being. Women and low-SES individuals experience larger losses than their counterparts within the same highly affected provinces, highlighting persistent gender and socioeconomic disparities.