提高退休年龄：政策效应及其内在机制
Increasing the Retirement Age: Policy Effects and Underlying Mechanisms
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Simon Rabaté", "affiliation": ["CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis"]}, {"name": "Egbert Jongen", "affiliation": ["Leiden University", "CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis"]}, {"name": "Tilbe Atav", "affiliation": ["Erasmus University Rotterdam"]}]
中文摘要
我们采用断点回归设计，并利用覆盖荷兰全体人口的行政数据，研究提高法定退休年龄（SRA）的政策效应。我们发现，该改革产生了明确且幅度较大的就业效应。一个假定个人在达到法定退休年龄前维持其原有劳动力市场状态更长时间的简单模型，能够很好地预测处理效应。达到法定退休年龄前的就业水平，以及达到法定退休年龄时的退休风险率，是决定该政策变化效应的关键因素。在探究荷兰所观察到的高退休风险率的潜在成因时，我们的结果表明，雇主效应发挥了重要作用。（JEL H55, J14, J26, J32）
Abstract
We study the effects of increasing the statutory retirement age (SRA) in the Netherlands, using regression discontinuity design and administrative data on the universe of the population. We find clear and large employment effects of the reform. A simple model in which individuals stay longer in their pre-SRA labor market state predicts the treatment effects well. The employment level before the SRA and the retirement hazard at the SRA are the key determinants of the effects of the policy change. Exploring potential explanations for the high hazard rate observed in the Netherlands, our results point to an important role for employers’ effects. (JEL H55, J14, J26, J32)