高收入者对州所得税的行为反应：来自加利福尼亚州的证据
Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Joshua Rauh", "affiliation": ["Hoover Institution"]}, {"name": "Ryan Shyu", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们利用行政数据，分析了对第30号提案的反应。该提案是2012年的一项措施，将加利福尼亚州高收入家庭的边际税率最高提高了3个百分点。相对于基准迁出率，2013年落入最高税率档的居住地税基中，另有0.8%离开了加利福尼亚州。以匹配的州外纳税人作为对照的分析显示，对于留在加利福尼亚州的高收入者，其收入相对于边际税后净收入率的弹性为2.5–3.2。这些反应使该州意外增加的税收收入在第一年内减少了45.2%，在两年内减少了60.9%，且主要由集约边际驱动。(JEL D91, H24, H31, H71, H73, J61, R23)
Abstract
Using administrative data, we analyze the response to Proposition 30, a 2012 measure that increased California marginal tax rates by up to 3 percentage points for high-income households. Relative to baseline departure rates, an additional 0.8 percent of the residential tax base that landed in the top bracket left California in 2013. Using matched out-of-state taxpayers as controls reveals an income elasticity with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate of 2.5–3.2 for high earners who stayed. These responses eroded 45.2 percent of state windfall tax revenues within the first year and 60.9 percent within 2 years, driven largely by the intensive margin. (JEL D91, H24, H31, H71, H73, J61, R23)