所得税的引入、财政能力与人口迁移：来自美国各州的证据
The Introduction of the Income Tax, Fiscal Capacity, and Migration: Evidence from US States
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Traviss Cassidy", "affiliation": ["University of Alabama"]}, {"name": "Mark Dincecco", "affiliation": ["University of Michigan"]}, {"name": "Ugo Troiano", "affiliation": ["University of California, Riverside"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用1900年至2010年美国各州的新面板数据，评估了财政能力与人口迁移如何响应个人所得税的引入。我们发现，所得税的引入使人均财政收入在短期内增加了12%，中期增加了15%，长期增加了17%。然而，对于二战后开征所得税的州，其财政收入的绝对水平在长期内并未发生统计显著变化。为解释这一现象，我们表明，所得税的引入促使中高收入家庭大量迁往不征收所得税的州。（JEL H71、H73、N32、N42、N92、R23）
Abstract
We evaluate how fiscal capacity and migration respond to the introduction of the individual income tax, drawing on new panel data on US states from 1900 to 2010. We find that the introduction of the income tax increased revenue per capita by 12 percent in the short term, 15 percent in the medium term, and 17 percent in the long term. The absolute level of revenue, however, did not significantly change over the long term for post–World War II adopters. To explain this, we show that the introduction of the income tax induced significant outmigration to non-income-tax states by middle- and high-earning households. (JEL H71, H73, N32, N42, N92, R23)