无法治地区的犯罪治理：来自里约热内卢贫民窟的证据
Fighting Crime in Lawless Areas: Evidence from Slums in Rio de Janeiro
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Christophe Bellégo", "affiliation": ["Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique", "ENSAE Paris"]}, {"name": "Joeffrey Drouard", "affiliation": ["Université Côte d'Azur", "Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Économie, Gestion"]}]
中文摘要
本文利用里约热内卢于2008年启动的贫民窟治安恢复计划，分析针对无法治地区犯罪问题的政策效果。我们利用代理变量和有界变差假设，纠正了因犯罪报案率存在不可观测上升所导致的偏误。我们发现，该计划降低了谋杀率和抢劫率，但大幅提高了人身攻击率和威胁率。我们提供证据表明，执法力度的加强削弱了帮派在其地盘上提供的安全服务，并可能激励犯罪分子从严重犯罪转向较轻犯罪，从而解释了上述结果。（JEL H76, K14, K42, O17, O18, R23）
Abstract
We use Rio de Janeiro’s slum pacification program initiated in 2008 to analyze the effect of policies targeting crime in lawless areas. We correct the bias from the unobserved rise in crime reporting via the use of a proxy variable and bounded variation assumptions. We find that the program reduced the murder and robbery rates but strongly increased the assault and threat rates. We explain these results by providing evidence that increased enforcement weakened the security service that gangs provide on their turf, and may incentivize criminals to switch from serious to less serious crimes. (JEL H76, K14, K42, O17, O18, R23)