道路对贸易与迁移的影响：来自一座规划首都城市的证据

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Melanie Morten", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}, {"name": "Jaqueline Oliveira", "affiliation": ["Rhodes College"]}]

中文摘要

大量文献研究了基础设施如何促进贸易，本文进一步探讨基础设施是否也促进迁移。我们运用一般均衡贸易模型和丰富的空间数据，研究巴西高速公路系统所受到的一次大规模、可合理视为外生的冲击对商品市场和劳动力市场的影响。我们发现，该高速公路系统使福利提高了2.8%，其中76%源于贸易成本下降，24%源于迁移成本下降。迁移成本高昂的一个推论是收益存在空间异质性：福利改善幅度介于1%至15%之间，而在劳动力完全流动的情形下，福利增益本应是均等的。（JEL H54、H76、O18、R23、R42、R53）

Abstract

A large body of literature studies how infrastructure facilitates trade. We ask whether infrastructure also facilitates migration. Using a general equilibrium trade model and rich spatial data, we study the impact of a large, plausibly exogenous shock to highways in Brazil on both goods and labor markets. We find the highway system increased welfare by 2.8 percent, of which 76 percent was due to reduced trade costs and 24 percent to reduced migration costs. An implication of costly migration is spatial heterogeneity in benefits: the range of welfare improvement is 1 to 15 percent, as opposed to uniform gains with perfect mobility. (JEL H54, H76, O18, R23, R42, R53)