迟做总比不做好？量化薪资保护计划对大流行时代就业复苏的资金和流动性效应
Better late than never? Quantifying funding and liquidity effects of the PPP on pandemic-era employment recovery
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Olga Gorbachev", "affiliation": ["University of Delaware"]}, {"name": "Maria J. Luengo-Prado", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "J.Christina Wang", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Boston"]}]
中文摘要
本文通过区分薪资保护计划（Paycheck Protection Program, PPP）的短期流动性效应与更广泛的资金效应，考察了该计划在新冠疫情期间如何支持就业。利用县级数据，我们表明，贷款发放延迟仅对规模最小的城市企业产生了持续的负面影响。为识别资金本身的因果影响，我们基于疫情前小型机构的薪资份额构建了一个工具变量。工具变量估计与企业层面分析显示，PPP 资金显著且广泛地改善了企业存续与就业恢复，估计每个工作年（job-year）的成本约为 89,000 美元，这与其他大规模财政干预的结果一致。
Abstract
This paper examines how the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) supported employment during the COVID-19 period by distinguishing between its short-term liquidity and broader funding effects. Using county-level data, we show that delays in loan disbursement had prolonged negative impacts only on the smallest urban businesses. To identify the causal impact of funding itself, we develop an instrument based on the pre-pandemic payroll share in small establishments. Instrumental-variable and firm-level analyses reveal that PPP funding improved business survival and employment recovery substantially and broadly, with an estimated cost of roughly $89,000 per job-year, consistent with other large-scale fiscal interventions.