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税收政策与企业进入

Tax policy and business entry
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Ian Sapollnik、Dustin Swonder

中文摘要

本文采用事件研究设计,衡量州企业所得税和个人所得税改革对企业进入的影响。我们重点关注符合以下条件的改革:不与联邦税收变动同时发生,改革前后税收政策保持稳定,且税负发生实质性变化。企业所得税改革会引起企业进入的显著变化:我们测得企业进入相对于税后净率的5年期弹性为2.7。这一结果主要由减税的巨大效应所驱动。企业所得税减税还会降低新进入企业的预期增长潜力。我们没有发现跨境溢出效应的有力证据,也没有发现个人所得税改革影响企业进入的证据。

Abstract

This paper measures the effects of state corporate and personal income tax reforms on business entry using an event study research design. We focus on reforms that do not coincide with federal tax changes, are preceded and followed by stable tax policy, and substantially change tax burdens. Corporate tax reforms cause meaningful changes in business entry: we measure a 5-year elasticity of 2.7 with respect to the net-of-tax rate. This is driven by large effects of tax cuts. Corporate tax cuts also reduce the predicted growth potential of entrants. We do not find strong evidence of cross-border spillovers, and find no evidence that personal income tax reforms affect business entry.
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