定期支付意外延迟对消费的影响
The impact of unexpected delays in periodic payments on consumption
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Michael Gelman", "affiliation": ["Claremont McKenna College"]}, {"name": "Zachary Orlando", "affiliation": ["University of Wisconsin–Madison"]}, {"name": "Dhiren Patki", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Boston"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究定期支付的意外延迟如何影响支出行为。我们的实证方法使用收入和支出的交易层面数据，并利用失业保险（UI）待遇领取中的准随机延迟。在个人等待失业保险待遇期间，其支出下降幅度约为收入损失的一半，这揭示了定期支付对流动性受限个体的价值。一旦延迟的待遇以一次性总付形式收到，个人便会将支出重新分配到不常购买的大额类别上，这些类别以耐用品为主。
Abstract
We study how unexpected delays in periodic payments affect spending behavior. Our empirical approach uses transaction-level data on income and spending and exploits quasi-random delays in the receipt of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Spending drops by about half of the loss in income that occurs while individuals wait for UI benefits, revealing the value of periodic payments for liquidity-constrained individuals. Once delayed payments are received as lump sums, individuals reallocate spending toward less commonly purchased big-ticket categories that are dominated by durables. • We study how unexpected delays in periodic payments affect spending behavior. • UI benefits were delayed for many people during the COVID-19 pandemic. • Spending drops by about half of the loss in income when people wait for UI. • Spending shifts towards durables when delayed UI benefits are received as lump sums. • Our findings inform the discussion on the optimal frequency of benefit transfers.