中文摘要
过去二十年来，新一代右翼政党和领导人在世界各地涌现。一个核心问题是，选民认为这些政党相对于传统右翼的可替代程度有多高。我们利用西班牙2023年大选中的一项准自然实验来回答这一问题。由于一名候选人在最后时刻退出，激进右翼政党呼声党（Vox）无法在一个选区参选。这一与经济或意识形态基本面无关的意外事件，使我们能够估计激进右翼政党对选举结果的影响。采用合成双重差分设计，我们发现传统右翼获得了激进右翼流失选票的82.9%。激进右翼的缺席还使左翼政党的得票份额略有上升，并使抗议性投票几乎翻倍。这些效应在高失业率地区更强，表明当地选民将传统右翼与激进右翼视为替代选项的可能性较低。利用调查数据开展的进一步分析印证了我们的研究结果。
Abstract
Over the last two decades, a new generation of right-wing parties and leaders has emerged worldwide. A central question is how substitutable voters perceive these parties to be relative to the classical right. We address this question using a quasi-natural experiment from Spain’s 2023 general election. Due to a last-minute candidate withdrawal, the radical right (Vox) could not run in one constituency. This unexpected event, unrelated to economic or ideological fundamentals, allows us to estimate the effects of radical right parties on electoral outcomes. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that the classical right captured 82.9 % of the radical right vote. The radical right’s absence also slightly increased the vote share for left-wing parties and nearly doubled protest voting. These effects are stronger in high-unemployment areas, suggesting that the classical and radical right are less likely to be viewed as substitutes there. Additional analyses using survey data corroborate our findings.