什么导致了逾期居留？以德国阿富汗寻求庇护者为例
What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2026 · [{"name": "Romuald Méango", "affiliation": ["University of Oxford", "Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy"]}, {"name": "François Poinas", "affiliation": ["Toulouse School of Economics"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文围绕三项主要贡献展开。第一，本文利用一项针对德国阿富汗寻求庇护者的独特调查，就寻求庇护者对自身结果的信念及与之相关的逾期滞留意图，提供了新颖的描述性见解。第二，本文估计了寻求庇护者所感知的逾期滞留事前回报，以及身份正规化、遣返与试错的期权价值。第三，本文评估并否定了"协助自愿返回"政策的成本效益论点；相反，本文估计出寻求庇护者对于能够保障其身份正规化的投资具有相当可观的支付意愿。
Abstract
Abstract The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.