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中国女性劳动参与率为何下降?基于城市通勤的视角

Why is female labor force participation declining in China? A perspective from urban commuting
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Shenglong Liu、Xingyu Pan、Yuanyuan Wan、Xiaoming Zhang、Shaojie Zhou

中文摘要

交通拥堵导致的通勤时间增加,是全球大多数主要城市普遍面临的困境。除影响环境污染和个人健康外,通勤时间增加还会对劳动供给产生负面影响。利用中国2015年1%人口抽样调查的微观数据,我们发现,通勤时间每增加1分钟,已婚女性参与劳动的概率平均下降0.5个百分点。通勤时间的差异可以解释样本中各城市已婚女性劳动参与率差异的约40%。我们的研究还从中国城市快速扩张、通勤时间不断增加的背景出发,为解释过去十年中国女性劳动参与率下降之谜提供了新的认识。

Abstract

The increase in commuting time due to traffic congestion is a widespread dilemma faced by most major cities worldwide. In addition to its impact on environmental pollution and personal health issues, it can negatively impact the labor supply. Utilizing microdata from China’s 1% population census data in 2015, we find that for every additional minute of commuting time, the probability of labor participation among married women decreases by an average of 0.5 percentage points. The variation in commuting time can explain about 40% of the differences in labor participation rates of married women across cities in our sample. Our study also sheds light on the puzzle of declining female labor participation in China over the past decade, specifically in the context of the nation’s rapid urban expansion and escalating commuting time.
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