规制制造业外商直接投资：印度尼西亚保护主义政策下的当地劳动力市场反应
Regulating manufacturing FDI: Local labor market responses to a protectionist policy in Indonesia
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Esther Gehrke", "affiliation": ["Graduate School Experimental Plant Sciences", "Wageningen University & Research"]}, {"name": "Robert Genthner", "affiliation": ["University of Göttingen"]}, {"name": "Krisztina Kis‐Katos", "affiliation": ["University of Göttingen"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用印度尼西亚高度细化的负面投资清单修订，以及受影响企业初始区位的空间差异，分析了对外商直接投资（FDI）日益增强的保护主义对国内就业的影响。FDI限制的增加带来了当地就业增长，约占印度尼西亚2006—2016年间总就业增长的十分之一。这些就业增长伴随着当地生产结构的重组以及制造业新企业的进入，在雇员少于20人的小型企业中尤为明显。尽管这些结果与受规制企业劳动资本比率的上升相一致，但我们发现，至少四分之三的就业增长是由间接效应驱动的，包括企业融入当地价值链以及移民的增加。然而，我们没有发现当地层面福利改善的证据。
Abstract
We analyze the effect of rising protectionism towards foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic employment, exploiting revisions in Indonesia’s highly granular negative investment list and spatial variation in the initial location of affected firms. The increase in FDI restrictions led to local employment gains, accounting for about one-tenth of the aggregate employment growth observed in Indonesia between 2006 and 2016. These gains were accompanied by a reorganization of the local production structure and new firm entries in the manufacturing sector, particularly among small firms with fewer than 20 employees. While these results are consistent with an increase in the labor-to-capital ratio among regulated firms, we find that at least three-quarters of the employment gains are driven by indirect effects, including integration of firms in local value chains, and increased immigration. However, we do not find evidence of welfare gains at the local level.