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暴力冲突与狭隘信任:田野实验室实验与调查证据

Violent conflict and parochial trust: Lab-in-the-field and survey evidence
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Katharina Werner、Ahmed Skali

中文摘要

冲突暴露如何影响信任?我们假设,直接(亲身)经历冲突会引发狭隘主义:对外群体的信任恶化,但由于亲属团结带来的积极体验,对内群体的信任可能改善。另一方面,通过第三方叙述间接接触冲突会降低对所有人的信任,这可能是由于消极性偏差所致。我们在印度尼西亚马鲁古开展的一项田野实验室实验中发现了与上述假设一致的证据——该地区曾于1999—2002年发生显著的基督徒—穆斯林冲突;同时,在利用暴力接触的时间和空间差异的三个跨国数据集中,我们也获得了支持性证据。我们的结果有助于化解文献中一个看似矛盾之处,并为解决冲突的政策提供参考。

Abstract

How does conflict exposure affect trust? We hypothesize that direct (first-hand) experience with conflict induces parochialism : trust towards out-groups worsens, but trust towards in-groups, owing to positive experiences of kin solidarity, may improve. Indirect exposure to conflict through third-party accounts, on the other hand, reduces trust toward everyone, arguably owing to negativity bias. We find consistent support for our hypotheses in a lab-in-the-field experiment in Maluku, Indonesia, which witnessed a salient Christian-Muslim conflict during 1999-2002, as well as in three cross-country datasets exploiting temporal and spatial variation in exposure to violence. Our results help resolve a seeming contradiction in the literature and inform policies on resolving conflicts.
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