政治相互依存：来自全球1267场选举中移民选民投票率的证据
Political Interdependence: Evidence from Emigrant Voter Turnout in 1,267 Elections Worldwide
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2026 · [{"name": "Laurence Go", "affiliation": ["University of Oslo"]}, {"name": "Nicolas Fliess", "affiliation": ["Max Planck Institute for Political and Social Science"]}, {"name": "Eva Østergaard-Nielsen", "affiliation": ["Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们记录了由国际移民驱动的政治相互依存。为检验居住国选举是否影响移民在母国选举中的投票率，我们构建了一个涵盖 43 个原籍国和 217 个居住国、共 1,267 场选举的新数据集。利用各国间选举时机的准随机性，我们发现：与在居住国选举之前举行的母国选举相比，在居住国选举之后举行的母国选举中，移民投票率提高了 7 个百分点。这与一个显著性(salience)模型相一致：接触竞争性的居住国选举以及随之扩大的媒体报道，会提高移民对政治进程的兴趣，并驱使其参与母国选举。
Abstract
Abstract We document political interdependence driven by international migration. To examine whether elections in residence countries impact emigrant turnout in homeland elections, we assemble a novel dataset covering 1,267 elections across 43 origin countries and 217 residence countries. Exploiting the quasi-random timing of elections between countries, we find that emigrant turnout increases by 7 percentage points in homeland elections held after residence country elections, compared to those held before. This is consistent with a model of salience where exposure to competitive residence country elections and expanded media coverage increases interest in the political process and drives emigrants to participate in their homeland elections.