美中贸易战与全球再配置
The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations
AER: Insights · 2024 · [{"name": "Pablo Fajgelbaum", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Pinelopi Goldberg", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Patrick Kennedy", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Amit Khandelwal", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Daria Taglioni", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}]
中文摘要
美中贸易战创造了净出口机会，而非仅仅使贸易在不同目的地之间转移。许多“旁观者”国家增加了对世界其他地区（不包括美国和中国）的被加征关税产品出口。关税弹性的国别特定成分，而非专业化模式，驱动了各国受关税影响产品出口增长的巨大差异。出口对美中关税的弹性可以识别一国出口与美国或中国是互补还是替代关系，以及该国供给曲线的斜率。供给曲线向下倾斜、且其出口替代（互补）美国和中国的国家，是贸易战较大（较小）的受益者。（JEL F13, F14, O19, P33）
Abstract
The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many “bystander” countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding the United States and China). Country-specific components of tariff elasticities, rather than specialization patterns, drove large cross-country variation in export growth of tariff-exposed products. The elasticities of exports to US-Chinese tariffs identify whether a country’s exports complement or substitute the United States or China and its supply curve’s slope. Countries that operate along downward-sloping supplies whose exports substitute (complement) the United States and China are among the larger (smaller) beneficiaries of the trade war. (JEL F13, F14, O19, P33)