债务延期偿付：来自学生贷款宽限还款的证据
Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance
AER: Insights · 2024 · [{"name": "Michael Dinerstein", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Constantine Yannelis", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Ching-Tse Chen", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
本文评估2020年学生债务延期偿付政策的影响。利用行政信用面板数据，我们根据贷款是否由政府持有，将贷款被冻结的借款人与贷款未被冻结的借款人进行比较。我们估计，借款人利用新增流动性增加了抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡借款，而非用于避免逾期还款。这些影响集中于原本没有逾期记录的借款人，其信用评分并未发生变化。研究结果凸显了流动性与信贷之间的重要互补关系：即使信贷供给固定，流动性增加仍会提高信贷需求。（JEL E32、G21、G51、H81、I22、I23）
Abstract
We evaluate the effects of the 2020 student debt moratorium. Using administrative credit panel data, we compare borrowers whose loans were frozen to borrowers whose loans were not frozen based on whether the government owned the loans. We estimate that borrowers used the new liquidity to increase borrowing on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards rather than avoid delinquencies. The effects are concentrated among borrowers without delinquencies, who saw no change in credit scores. The results highlight an important complementarity between liquidity and credit, as liquidity increases the demand for credit even as the supply of credit is fixed. (JEL E32, G21, G51, H81, I22, I23)