埃塞俄比亚多方面资产转移项目处理效应的消退
The Fading Treatment Effects of a Multifaceted Asset-Transfer Program in Ethiopia
AER: Insights · 2024 · [{"name": "Nathan Barker", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Dean Karlan", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Christopher Udry", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Kelsey Wright", "affiliation": ["Paris School of Economics"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究了埃塞俄比亚一项“大推动式”脱贫项目的长期效应。在该项目中，极度贫困家庭获得一次性生产性资产转移（主要为牲畜）、技术培训以及储蓄账户使用机会。七年后，对财富和消费的处理效应在经济意义上仍然显著，但相较于实施后两年和三年的结果已有所消退。对其他结果变量的处理效应衰减得更为明显。鉴于绝对福祉（如粮食安全）并未下降，我们认为，处理效应的消退主要源于对照组家庭生活水平的提高，而非处理组家庭此前累积的收益发生损失。（JEL D12, G51, I31, I32, I38, J24, O12）
Abstract
We study the long-run effects of a big-push “graduation” program in Ethiopia in which very poor households received a one-time transfer of productive assets (mainly livestock), technical training, and access to savings accounts. After seven years, treatment effects on wealth and consumption remain economically meaningful but dissipated relative to the two- and three-year results. Treatment effects on other outcomes attenuated further. Based on absolute well-being (e.g., food security) not dropping, we argue that the treatment effect dissipation is driven primarily by improved living standards for control households rather than losses of the previously accrued benefits for the treatment households. (JEL D12, G51, I31, I32, I38, J24, O12)