Responses to Extreme Temperatures: Migrant Networks and International Migration from El Salvador
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Ana Maria Ibáñez、Juliana Quigua、Maria Jimena Romero、Andrea Velásquez
中文摘要
我们表明，暴露于极端气温会显著增加萨尔瓦多的国际移民，该国近四分之一的人口居住在美国。极端气温会降低玉米产量，导致生产者减少收获后投入品的使用，并降低对农业工人的需求。这些收入损失，加上既有的美国移民网络，增加了外迁。我们的研究结果表明，当目的地网络强大且迁移在经济上仍然可行时，国际移民如何成为应对极端气温的一种方式。这一模式并非萨尔瓦多所独有：全球约有3000万个农场地处能够获得侨汇的低收入环境。（JEL F24, J15, J23, J43, O15, Q12, Q54）
Abstract
We show that exposure to extreme temperatures significantly increases international migration from El Salvador, where nearly a quarter of the population lives in the United States. Extreme temperatures reduce corn yields, leading producers to decrease their use of postharvest inputs and demand for agricultural workers. These income losses, combined with established US migration networks, increase emigration. Our findings highlight how international migration serves as a response to extreme temperatures when destination networks are strong and migration remains financially feasible. This pattern is not unique to El Salvador: Roughly 30 million farms globally are in low-income settings with access to remittances. (JEL F24, J15, J23, J43, O15, Q12, Q54)