贝弗里奇曲线移动原因的变迁
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2024 · [{"name": "Gadi Barlevy", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"]}, {"name": "R. Jason Faberman", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Bart Hobijn", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Ayşegül Şahin", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
本文讨论了1959年至2023年间推动美国贝弗里奇曲线移动的各项因素的相对重要性如何变化。我们在一个简单的流量类比框架下回顾这些因素，该类比旨在概括劳动力市场搜寻与匹配理论的主要见解。与人口结构相关的流入率变化解释了1959年至2000年间贝弗里奇曲线的移动。大衰退之后，匹配效率下降抑制了失业流出，推动曲线向外移动。相比之下，贝弗里奇曲线近期的移动似乎是由劳动者转换工作的积极性变化所驱动。最后，我们指出，尽管贝弗里奇曲线是分析失业、职位空缺与通货膨胀之间关系的有用工具，但这些劳动力市场指标与通货膨胀之间的联系取决于贝弗里奇曲线是否发生移动以及为何移动。因此，要根据失业与职位空缺的共同行为得出政策结论，必须仔细考察贝弗里奇曲线移动背后的因素。
Abstract
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.