经济学家如何助力美国国会使用的经济与预算分析

中文摘要

美国国会在立法过程中使用国会预算办公室（CBO）提供的经济与预算预测、拟议立法的成本估算及其他分析。CBO基于对联邦项目和收入来源的理解、研读相关研究文献、分析数据以及咨询外部专家来进行评估——并且常常依赖经济学研究。本文首先讨论国会预算办公室的作用，随后探讨经济学家可如何开展研究，通过提高CBO所用分析与参数估计的质量，为国会提供更有价值的信息。文章在信贷与保险、能源与环境、卫生健康、劳动、宏观经济、国家安全以及税收与转移支付七个领域，给出了总体背景与具体实例。

Abstract

The US Congress uses economic and budgetary projections, cost estimates for proposed legislation, and other analyses provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as part of its legislative process. CBO makes assessments based on an understanding of federal programs and revenue sources, reading the relevant research literature, analysis of data, and consultation with outside experts—and often relies on economic research. This article begins with a discussion of the role of the Congressional Budget Office and then discusses how economists could conduct research that would help inform the Congress by improving the quality of the analysis and parameter estimates that CBO uses. It gives overall context and specific examples in seven areas: credit and insurance, energy and the environment, health, labor, macroeconomics, national security, and taxes and transfers.