政治选拔研究的进展与展望
Progress and Perspectives in the Study of Political Selection
Annual Review of Economics · 2018 · [{"name": "Ernesto Dal Bó", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}, {"name": "Frederico Finan", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}]
中文摘要
我们构建了一个概率投票环境下候选人自我选择的模型，以揭示政治供给侧与需求侧共同塑造政治人物素质的作用机制。该模型强调，选拔模式以及政治人物素质的比较静态结果，关键取决于参选成本如何随候选人素质的不同而变化。该模型就政治阶层的素质将如何随候选人供给和需求两方面的关键参数变化提出了预测。我们以此模型为框架，回顾过去二十年间涌现的政治选拔实证文献，对比已取得显著进展的领域与重要理论预测仍未经检验、或现有证据尚不足以形成共识的领域，并指出未来的研究方向。
Abstract
We provide a model of self-selection by candidates in a probabilistic voting environment to shed light on the forces shaping the quality of politicians from both the supply and demand sides of politics. The model highlights the idea that the patterns of selection and the comparative statics of politician quality depend critically on how the costs of running for office vary for candidates with different qualities. The model offers predictions on how the quality of the political class will vary with key parameters pertaining to both the supply and demand for candidates. We use the model to frame a review of the empirical literature on political selection that has emerged over the past two decades. We contrast areas where significant progress has been made with others where important theoretical predictions remain untested or existing evidence does not allow a consensus, highlighting areas for future research.