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政治选拔研究的进展与展望

Progress and Perspectives in the Study of Political Selection
Annual Review of Economics · 2018 · Ernesto Dal Bó、Frederico Finan

中文摘要

我们构建了一个概率投票环境下候选人自我选择的模型,以阐明政治供给侧和需求侧塑造政治人物质量的力量。该模型强调了这样一个观点:选拔模式和政治人物质量的比较静态结果关键取决于参选成本如何随候选人质量的不同而变化。该模型就政治阶层的质量将如何随候选人供给与需求相关的关键参数而变化提出了预测。我们以该模型为框架,回顾过去二十年间涌现的政治选拔实证文献。我们将已取得显著进展的领域,与那些重要理论预测仍未得到检验、或现有证据尚不足以形成共识的领域进行对比,并指出未来的研究方向。

Abstract

We provide a model of self-selection by candidates in a probabilistic voting environment to shed light on the forces shaping the quality of politicians from both the supply and demand sides of politics. The model highlights the idea that the patterns of selection and the comparative statics of politician quality depend critically on how the costs of running for office vary for candidates with different qualities. The model offers predictions on how the quality of the political class will vary with key parameters pertaining to both the supply and demand for candidates. We use the model to frame a review of the empirical literature on political selection that has emerged over the past two decades. We contrast areas where significant progress has been made with others where important theoretical predictions remain untested or existing evidence does not allow a consensus, highlighting areas for future research.
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