开放性的权衡：经济信息与移民政策偏好
Trading Off Openness: Economic Information and Immigration Policy Preferences
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Cristina Cattaneo", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Daniela Grieco", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Nicola Lacetera", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Mario Macis", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们在德国、匈牙利和意大利对8,000多名参与者开展了一项调查实验，考察有关移民经济影响的信息如何影响人们对更开放移民政策的支持。收到预测信息、得知在更开放移民政策下未来收入将更高的受访者，对此类政策表现出更高的支持度。该处理还部分改变了先前态度影响政策偏好的方式。结构估计表明，要使多数人支持将移民规模提高至当前水平以上，意大利和德国的人均年收入增幅需分别达到约1.2%和1.7%，而匈牙利则需要更大、甚至无法实现的增幅。相较于近期的历史增长率，这些增幅十分可观，这表明仅凭经济收益不太可能使更开放的移民政策获得广泛支持。
Abstract
We conducted a survey experiment with over 8,000 participants in Germany, Hungary, and Italy to examine how information about the economic impact of immigration affects the support for more open immigration policies. Respondents who received projections showing higher future incomes under more open immigration policies reported greater support for these policies. The treatment also partly changed how prior attitudes affected policy preferences. Structural estimates suggest that majority support for immigration above current levels would require annual per-capita income gains of about 1.2% in Italy and 1.7% in Germany, and still larger or unattainable gains in Hungary. These increases are large relative to recent historical growth rates, suggesting that economic benefits alone are unlikely to generate vast support for more open immigration policies.