洪水风险披露的价格与分配影响：来自美国住房平台的证据
The Price and Distributional Impact of Flood Risk Disclosure: Evidence from US Housing Platforms
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Stephen B. Billings", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Sophie Calder-Wang", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Weiling Liu", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
信息披露如何重塑住房市场中环境风险的配置？我们量化了 First Street 在美国住房平台上全国性披露房产层面洪水风险所产生的价格与分配影响。我们采用一种利用披露风险类别中离散阈值的双重断点回归（difference-in-RD）设计，发现与被标记为“严重”洪水风险的住房相比，被标记为“极端”洪水风险的住房价格折价 3.3%，且在市场上的挂牌时间延长一周。这些效应对沿海房产最强，并且在不同的 FEMA 洪泛区划定类别中普遍存在。披露还导致了显著的家庭重新分类：极端风险住房的买家收入低 5.3%，更有可能使用 FHA 融资，且年龄更大。通过一个离散选择模型，我们发现风险向低收入家庭的再分配主要由价格变化而非对洪水风险的异质性偏好所驱动。
Abstract
How does information disclosure reshape the allocation of environmental risk in the housing market? We quantify the price and distributional impact of the nationwide disclosure of property-level flood risk from First Street on U.S. housing platforms. Using a difference-in-RD design that exploits discrete cutoffs in the disclosed risk categories, we find that homes labeled as "extreme'' flood risk experience a 3.3% price discount and stay on the market for a week longer, relative to those labeled as "severe'' risk. These effects are strongest for coastal properties and remain pervasive across different FEMA floodplain designations. Disclosure also generates significant household resorting: buyers of extreme-risk homes have 5.3% lower income, are more likely to use FHA financing, and are older. Through a discrete choice model, we find that the redistribution of risk to lower-income households is primarily driven by price changes rather than heterogeneous preferences for flood risk.