NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Gaetano Basso", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Mitali R. Mathur", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Giovanni Peri", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
1990—2024年间，经合组织（OECD）国家经历了本土人口增长下降与净移民上升。我们编制了一个新数据集，涵盖流向经合组织国家、来自所有来源地的净移民率，结果显示新增移民的大部分来自非经合组织国家，且以高技能移民为主。推力因素、网络效应和政策指数对各国移民动态中巨大的跨国异质性解释力有限；意外冲击与移民激增十分常见。随后，我们使用局部投影法及多种识别变异来源，估计了移民与人均GDP增长、劳动生产率、资本投资及全要素生产率（TFP）之间的关系。来自非经合组织国家的移民是人均（每名从业人员）GDP增长的显著预测因素，主要通过提高投资发挥作用。尤其是高技能移民，与更强的人力资本积累、更快的全要素生产率增长以及更大程度的资本深化相关。相比之下，本土人口增长对人均GDP和生产率没有影响，或仅具有微弱的负面影响。这些结果与大量文献的发现一致，即移民——尤其是高技能移民——对生产率和经济增长具有积极影响。
Abstract
OECD countries experienced declining native population growth and rising net immigration over 1990-2024. We compile a new dataset of net immigration rates to OECD countries from all origins and show that most of the increase came from non-OECD countries and was predominantly high-skilled. Push factors, network effects, and policy indices explain little of the large cross-country heterogeneity in immigration dynamics; unexpected shocks and surges were common. Using local projections and several sources of identifying variation, we then estimate the relationship between immigration and growth in GDP per capita, labor productivity, capital investment, and total factor productivity (TFP). Immigration from non-OECD countries was a significant predictor of GDP per worker growth, primarily through higher investment. High-skilled immigration, in particular, was associated with stronger human capital accumulation, faster TFP growth, and greater capital deepening. Native population growth, by contrast, had no or weakly negative effects on GDP per capita and productivity. These results are consistent with a large literature documenting the positive productivity and growth effects of immigration, especially high-skilled immigration.