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生命早期医疗可及性与晚年死亡率:来自县卫生部门设立的证据

Early Life Healthcare Access and Later-life Mortality: Evidence Using Openings of County Health Departments
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Hamid Noghanibehambari", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Jason Fletcher", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

本文考察生命早期接触县卫生部门(county health departments, CHD)对晚年寿命的长期影响。县卫生部门是20世纪早期数十年间旨在为弱势群体和医疗服务不足地区提供可负担医疗可及性的一项公共卫生举措。我们使用与1940年人口普查相匹配的社会保障署死亡记录,并采用双重差分估计策略,根据各县县卫生部门的设立年份,比较在不同年龄阶段受到影响的个体的寿命差异。我们发现,在胎儿发育期及生命早期,出生县设立县卫生部门与寿命延长1—4个月存在显著关联。结果呈现出明显的异质性:效应更多集中于非白人个体,以及父母受教育程度较低的个体。同期的生育率与婴儿死亡率数据表明,县卫生部门设立后婴儿死亡率下降、出生率上升。此外,我们发现个体在成年早期的受教育程度、社会经济地位和收入均有显著改善。我们认为,县卫生部门带来的胎儿期环境改善、胎儿存活率提高以及生命早期健康资本的提升,促进了成年期人力资本的积累,并可能对晚年寿命产生长期影响。

Abstract

This paper examines the long-term effects of early-life exposure to county health departments (CHDs), a public health initiative aimed at providing affordable healthcare access to disadvantaged and underserved areas during the early decades of the 20th century, on later-life longevity. We employ Social Security Administration death records linked with the 1940 census and implement a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to compare the longevity of individuals exposed at different ages to the county-specific year of CHD establishment. We find that exposure to a CHD opening in the county of birth during fetal development and early years of life is associated with a 1-4-month increase in longevity. We observe considerable heterogeneity in the results, such that the effects are more concentrated among non-white individuals and individuals with lower-educated parents. Contemporaneous fertility and infant mortality data suggest reductions in infant mortality rates and increases in birth rates following CHD openings. Additionally, we find significant improvements in educational attainment, socioeconomic status, and income in early adulthood. We argue that enhancements in the fetal environment, improved fetal survival, and better early life health capital resulting from CHD exposure contribute to improvements in human capital during adulthood, with potential implications for later-life longevity.
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