中文摘要
China's experience since the launch of reform and opening up demonstrates that opening to the outside world is an important force driving its economic growth and industrial structural transformation. Based on a multi-country, multi-sector Ricardian trade model incorporating nonhomothetic preferences, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on China's structural transformation. Using trade and production data from 1995 to 2018, the paper separately evaluates the overall effect of China's transition from autarky to openness and the stage-specific effect of trade liberalization arising from reductions in trade barriers during China's active preparations for accession to the World Trade Organization. The results show that the policy effects of China's trade liberalization were asymmetric across periods and that the stage-specific effect of trade liberalization during the period of WTO accession was the principal force driving the country's industrial structural transformation. Ignoring the stage-specific nature of trade liberalization would lead to a systematic underestimation of its policy effects. Furthermore, a heterogeneous analysis of trade modes shows that general trade has a greater impact on structural transformation than processing trade. Because China's tariffs and other trade barriers are currently already at relatively low levels, the paper's long-run projections indicate that promoting trade liberalization solely through conventional measures such as lowering tariffs and other trade barriers would have a relatively limited impact on China's future industrial structure. It is therefore necessary to identify new drivers of China's future industrial transformation, accelerate the establishment of a new "dual circulation" development pattern led by the domestic economic cycle, steadily expand high-standard institutional opening up, and vigorously develop and foster new quality productive forces. Finally, this paper discusses the impact of rising global trade protectionism on China's industrial structure and finds that, while industrial exports are impeded, the service sector suffers an even greater adverse impact because of contracting domestic demand.
Abstract
改革开放以来的实践表明，对外开放是推动我国经济增长与产业结构转型的重要力量。本文基于一个结合了非位似偏好的多国、多部门李嘉图贸易模型，定量分析了贸易开放对中国结构转型的影响。本文基于1995~2018年的贸易与生产数据，分别评估了我国从封闭到开放的贸易开放总效应，以及由积极准备入世所引致的贸易壁垒削减带来的贸易开放阶段效应。结果发现：我国的贸易开放政策效应在不同时期呈现非对称特征，入世期间的贸易开放阶段效应是推动我国产业结构转型的主要力量。若忽略了贸易开放的阶段性特征，则贸易开放的政策效应会被系统性低估。进一步地，对贸易模式的异质性分析表明一般贸易对结构转型的影响程度要高于加工贸易。由于目前我国的关税等贸易壁垒已处于较低水平，本文的长期预测发现仅以降低关税等贸易壁垒的传统方式来推动贸易开放对我国未来产业结构的影响相对有限。因此，要寻找推进我国未来产业转型的新动力，加快构建以国内大循环为主导的“双循环”新发展格局，稳步扩大制度型高水平对外开放，大力发展和培育新质生产力。最后，本文还讨论了全球贸易保护抬升对我国产业结构的影响，发现在工业出口受阻的同时，服务业也因国内需求收缩而受到更大程度的冲击。