失业保险的去就业效应: 一项荟萃分析
Disemployment Effects of Unemployment Insurance: A Meta-analysis
AER: Insights · 2026 · [{"name": "Jonathan P. Cohen", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Peter Ganong", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
我们系统综述了关于失业救济金如何影响失业持续时间的研究。统计显著的研究结果被发表的可能性高出八倍。对发表偏误进行校正后，平均弹性下降了三分之一。元分析是一种数据驱动的方法，可跨政策情境汇总估计值，并推广充分统计量方法，从而计算全局最优政策。尽管现有基于消费下降的方法通常意味着最优替代率接近于零，但我们校正后的估计意味着美国的最优替代率为 28%。我们无法拒绝"微观"弹性等于"宏观"弹性这一假设。（JEL E24, J64, J65）
Abstract
We systematically review studies of how unemployment benefits affect unemployment duration. Statistically significant findings are eight times more likely to be published. Correcting for publication bias cuts the average elasticity by a third. Meta-analysis is a data-driven way to aggregate estimates across policy contexts and generalize sufficient statistics methods to compute the global optimal policy. Although existing consumption drop-based approaches typically imply an optimal replacement rate near zero, our corrected estimates imply an optimal replacement rate of 28 percent in the United States. We are unable to reject the hypothesis that the “micro” elasticity is equal to the “macro” elasticity. (JEL E24, J64, J65)