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财政赤字能否自我融资?

Can Deficits Finance Themselves?
Econometrica · 2024 · George‐Marios Angeletos、Chen Lian、Christian K. Wolf

中文摘要

本文考察在具有以下两个关键特征的环境中,财政赤字如何得到融资:(i)名义刚性;(ii)由于有限寿命或流动性约束,李嘉图等价不成立。在此类环境中,赤字可通过两个渠道为自身融资:实际经济活动的繁荣扩大了税基;通货膨胀的急升侵蚀了名义政府债务的实际价值。本文的主要理论结果表明,随着财政调整被推迟,这一机制会变得更为有力,并在极限情况下实现完全自我融资:只要货币当局不过度抑制财政刺激,政府便可在当期实行赤字、未来不加税也不削减支出,其债务仍能收敛回初始水平。我们进一步证明,当以有关边际消费倾向、名义刚性、货币政策反应及财政调整速度的经验证据约束该理论时,仍可实现相当程度的自我融资。

Abstract

We ask how fiscal deficits are financed in environments with two key features: (i) nominal rigidity, and (ii) a violation of Ricardian equivalence due to finite lives or liquidity constraints. In such environments, deficits can contribute to their own financing through two channels: a boom in real economic activity, which expands the tax base; and a surge in inflation, which erodes the real value of nominal government debt. Our main theoretical result establishes that this mechanism becomes more potent as fiscal adjustment is delayed, leading to full self‐financing in the limit: if the monetary authority does not lean too heavily against the fiscal stimulus, then the government can run a deficit today, refrain from tax hikes or spending cuts in the future, and still see its debt converge back to its initial level. We further demonstrate that a significant degree of self‐financing is achievable when the theory is disciplined by empirical evidence on marginal propensities to consume, nominal rigidities, the monetary policy reaction, and the speed of fiscal adjustment.
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