电动汽车与能源转型: 分时定价的意外后果
Electric Vehicles and the Energy Transition: Unintended Consequences of Time-of-Use Pricing
AER: Insights · 2025 · [{"name": "Megan R. Bailey", "affiliation": ["University of Calgary"]}, {"name": "David P. Brown", "affiliation": ["University of Alberta"]}, {"name": "Erica Myers", "affiliation": ["University of Calgary"]}, {"name": "Blake Shaffer", "affiliation": ["University of Calgary"]}, {"name": "Frank A. Wolak", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}]
中文摘要
电动汽车（EV）的增长给电力系统带来了新的挑战。我们实施了一项实地实验，以评估分时电价（TOU）与集中管理充电对电动汽车充电行为的影响。我们发现，尽管分时电价能有效地将电动汽车充电转移至非高峰时段，但它无意中诱发了新的、规模更大的同步充电"影子峰值"。这些影子峰值导致本地容量约束被更大程度地超出，并提前了配电网升级的需求。相比之下，集中管理充电解决了协调问题，降低了变压器容量需求，并且在我们的研究情境中获得了消费者的良好接受。（JEL C93, D91, L62, L94, Q42）
Abstract
The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) raises new challenges for electricity systems. We implement a field experiment to assess the effect of time-of-use (TOU) pricing and managed charging on EV charging behavior. We find that while TOU pricing is effective at shifting EV charging into off-peak hours, it unintentionally induces new and larger “shadow peaks” of simultaneous charging. These shadow peaks lead to greater exceedance of local capacity constraints and advance the need for distribution network upgrades. In contrast, centrally managed charging solves the coordination problem, reducing transformer capacity requirements, and is well tolerated by consumers in our setting. (JEL C93, D91, L62, L94, Q42)