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保留加薪幅度:广延边际上的总劳动供给曲线

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labour Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin
Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · Preston Mui、Benjamin Schoefer

中文摘要

我们通过针对美国和德国人口的两项代表性调查,测度了广延(就业)边际上的意愿劳动供给。我们询问受访者的保留加薪幅度,即使某一个体在就业与非就业之间无差异的工资百分比变动。它等于该个体的保留工资除以其实际工资或潜在工资。保留加薪幅度的分布就是非参数总劳动供给曲线。局部来看,该曲线呈现出大于3的较高短期弹性,与经济周期证据一致。对于更大幅度的向上移动,弧弹性下降并趋近于0.5,与来自税收假期的准实验证据一致。现有模型无法匹配这条非恒定且不对称的曲线。

Abstract

Abstract We measure desired labour supply at the extensive (employment) margin in two representative surveys of the U.S. and German populations. We elicit reservation raises: the percent wage change that renders a given individual indifferent between employment and nonemployment. It is equal to her reservation wage divided by her actual, or potential, wage. The reservation raise distribution is the nonparametric aggregate labour supply curve. Locally, the curve exhibits large short-run elasticities above 3, consistent with business cycle evidence. For larger upward shifts, arc elasticities shrink towards 0.5, consistent with quasi-experimental evidence from tax holidays. Existing models fail to match this nonconstant, asymmetric curve.
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