American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2024 · Pamela Giustinelli、Matthew D. Shapiro
中文摘要
本文通过询问年长劳动者在不同健康状态下未来两年和四年时工作的主观概率，研究健康对其工作的影响。这些指标能够预测实际工作结果。每个个体在不同健康状态下的工作概率差异，在潜在结果框架下可解释为主观事前处理效应（SeaTEs），在离散选择动态规划框架下则可解释为工作偏好。在给定健康状况的条件下，工作预期存在较大的异质性。本文展示了与健康相关的工作偏好异质性如何可能使健康对退休影响的回归估计产生偏误。（JEL D84, I12, J14, J22, J26）
Abstract
The paper studies the effect of health on work among older workers by eliciting two- and four-year-ahead subjective probabilities of working under alternative health states. These measures predict work outcomes. Person-specific differences in working probabilities across health states can be interpreted as Subjective ex ante Treatment Effects (SeaTEs) in a potential outcomes framework and as taste for work within a discrete choice dynamic programming framework. There is substantial heterogeneity in expectations of work conditional on health. The paper shows how heterogeneity in taste for work correlated with health can bias regression estimates of the effect of health on retirement. (JEL D84, I12, J14, J22, J26)