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联合政府中投给政党选票的随机化与政策

Random Votes to Parties and Policies in Coalition Governments
Econometrica · 2024 · Matteo Cervellati、Giorgio Gulino、Paolo Roberti

中文摘要

我们利用了一项自然实验:在十余年间意大利所有地方选举中,联合阵营内部各政党所获选票存在随机变化。选票上政党标志位置的抽签,使我们得以估计政党得票增加对联合阵营政策的因果效应。得票获得非边际的随机提升,会使预算支出转向受处理政党纲领中的主张,但仅限于该党政治宣言中凸显的议题。我们研究了选票转化为政策的一系列机制链条,并将其与政党在立法多数派内部议价能力的增强联系起来。政党利用更高的选举支持率,争取任命与其存在政治关联的内阁成员。赋予不同政党更大影响力,还会导致选出具有不同社会人口特征的内阁。这一非有意形成的实验有助于进一步揭示选票转化为政党支持、进而影响联合政府政策的机制。

Abstract

We exploit a natural experiment involving a randomization of votes across parties within coalitions in all local elections in Italy for over a decade. A lottery on the position of party symbols in the ballot papers allows estimating the causal effect of increasing votes to parties for coalition policies. A non‐marginal random boost of votes shifts budgetary spending towards the treated party's platform, but only for issues that are salient in that party's political manifesto. We study the chains of mechanisms mapping votes into policies and link it to an increase in bargaining power within legislative majorities. Parties leverage their higher electoral support to gain the appointment of politically affiliated cabinet members. Empowering different parties also leads to the selection of cabinets with different socio‐demographic characteristics. The unintentional experiment helps shed new light on mechanisms mapping votes to parties into coalition policies.
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