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更多立法,更多增长?来自美国各州的证据

More Laws, More Growth? Evidence from US States
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · Elliott Ash、Massimo Morelli、Matia Vannoni

中文摘要

本文分析了在何种条件下更多立法能促进经济增长。以美国各州为背景,我们运用自然语言处理工具,衡量了1965—2012年的立法流量。我们针对文本数据实施了一种新颖的偏移—份额(shift-share)设计,其中立法的工具变量为留一法(leave-one-out)生成的法律主题流量与处理前法律主题份额的交互项。我们发现,在边际上,更高的立法产出会带来更多的经济增长。与更完备的法律能够减少事后敲竹杠(ex post holdup)这一解释相一致,我们发现该效应由或有条款(contingent clauses)的使用所驱动,在关系专用性投资较高的行业中效应最大,并随当地经济不确定性的上升而增强。

Abstract

This paper analyzes the conditions under which more legislation contributes to economic growth. In the context of US states, we apply natural language processing tools to measure legislative flows for the years 1965–2012. We implement a novel shift-share design for text data, where the instrument for legislation is leave-one-out legal topic flows interacted with pretreatment legal topic shares. We find that at the margin, higher legislative output causes more economic growth. Consistent with more complete laws reducing ex post holdup, we find that the effect is driven by the use of contingent clauses, is largest in sectors with high relationship-specific investments, and is increasing with local economic uncertainty.
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