Children’s Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence From Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2023 · Keith Finlay、Michael Mueller‐Smith、Brittany Street
中文摘要
儿童通过亲生父母或同住成年人间接接触司法系统，既是其自身脆弱性的标志，也是衡量司法系统在社会中广泛触及范围的指标。历史上，由于数据资源不足——包括无法观测非监禁事件、无法在儿童整个童年期持续追踪，以及无法衡量与儿童同住但非其亲生父母的成年人——美国这一群体的规模一直难以估计。为克服这些挑战，我们利用数十亿条受限行政与调查记录，并将其与刑事司法行政记录系统（Criminal Justice Administrative Records System）数据相链接，发现接触率远高于既有研究报告的水平：在1999—2005年出生的儿童中，9%曾间接接触监狱监禁，18%曾间接接触重罪定罪，39%曾间接接触任何刑事指控。黑人、美洲印第安人和低收入儿童的刑事指控接触率超过60%。尽管更宽泛的定义涵盖了更广泛的人群，但这些指标与儿童期福祉之间存在强烈且一致的负相关关系，表明它们仍是预测脆弱性的有价值指标。最后，我们记录了接触率在地理上的显著差异，并利用这一差异，通过迁移者设计估计童年时期居住在高接触率县对儿童的影响。我们发现，迁入高接触率县的儿童更有可能在迁移后经历接触事件，并且到26岁时在多个维度（收入、犯罪活动、青少年时期成为父母、死亡率）上表现出显著更差的结果；对较早年龄迁移者的影响最强。
Abstract
Abstract Children’s indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or coresident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system’s expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population for the United States has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to observe nonincarceration events, follow children throughout their childhood, and measure adult nonbiological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison, 9% of children born between 1999–2005; felony conviction, 18%; and any criminal charge, 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest that these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience postmove exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); effects are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages.