Review of Economic Studies · 2023 · James Cloyne、Nicholas Dimsdale、Natacha Postel‐Vinay
中文摘要
财政政策对经济活动的影响仍是一个备受争议的问题。自凯恩斯首次对此发表评论以来，两次世界大战之间的英国（1918—1939年）始终是一个格外有趣且充满争议的案例，尤其是因为当时的高债务环境和剧烈波动的商业周期。这场争论往往集中于政府支出的影响，而人们对税收变动的影响所知甚少。事实上，这一时期的多项税收改革着眼于长期目标和社会目标，往往反映了英国财政大臣的个人特质。基于广泛的史学研究，我们对两次世界大战之间的英国采用叙事方法，识别出一组新的外生税收变动序列。我们发现，税收变动对国内生产总值（GDP）具有相当大的影响，其乘数在两年内超过2。我们的估计为税收变动的影响提供了新证据，有助于推进有关两次世界大战之间财政政策的历史争论，同时也与第二次世界大战后研究发现的显著税收乘数相一致。
Abstract
Abstract The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918–39, has remained a particularly interesting and contentious case—not least because of its high-debt environment and turbulent business cycle. This debate has often focused on the effects of government spending, but little is known about the effects of tax changes. In fact, a number of tax reforms in the period focused on long-term and social objectives, often reflecting the personality of British Chancellors. Based on extensive historiographical research, we apply a narrative approach to the interwar period in Britain and isolate a new series of exogenous tax changes. We find that tax changes have a sizable effect on GDP, with multipliers exceeding 2 within two years. Our estimates provide new evidence on the effects of tax changes, contribute to the historical debate about fiscal policy in the interwar period and are also consistent with the sizable tax multipliers found after World War II.