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储备积累、宏观经济稳定与主权风险

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · Javier Bianchi、César Sosa‐Padilla

中文摘要

过去三十年间,新兴市场国家的政府积累了大量国际储备,实行固定汇率制的国家尤其如此。本文提出了一种能够解释这些事实的储备积累理论。利用一个包含名义刚性的内生主权违约模型,我们认为,主权风险与总需求放大之间的相互作用,使国际储备具有稳定宏观经济的对冲作用。我们表明,在经济景气时期发行债务以购买储备,使政府能够在主权利差上升且债务滚续成本提高时稳定总需求。我们提供了与模型预测一致的实证证据。

Abstract

Abstract In the past three decades, governments in emerging markets have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, especially those with fixed exchange rates. This article proposes a theory of reserve accumulation that can account for these facts. Using a model of endogenous sovereign default with nominal rigidities, we argue that the interaction between sovereign risk and aggregate demand amplification generates a macroeconomic-stabilization hedging role for international reserves. We show that issuing debt to purchase reserves during good times allows the government to stabilize aggregate demand when sovereign spreads rise and rolling over the debt becomes more expensive. We provide empirical evidence consistent with the model’s predictions.
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