← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

飓风、气候变化政策与选举问责

Hurricanes, Climate Change Policies, and Electoral Accountability
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Stefano Gagliarducci、M. Daniele Paserman、Eleonora Patacchini

中文摘要

本文研究立法者在何种条件下会推动短期内可能不受欢迎、但能带来长期收益的政策。利用1989年至2020年全部联邦灾害声明数据,我们发现,受飓风影响的国会选区代表更倾向于支持应对气候变化的环境立法。然而,这一反应取决于政治环境:只有席位安全的代表才能将其政治议程转向那些需要以短期成本换取长期收益的政策。这些结果凸显了选举激励在塑造政治家对前瞻性政策制定之态度方面的作用。(JEL D72、Q54、Q58)

Abstract

This paper studies the conditions under which legislators promote policies that may be unpopular in the short term but yield long-term benefits. Using data on the universe of federal disaster declarations from 1989 to 2020, we document that representatives from congressional districts impacted by hurricanes are more inclined to support environmental legislation addressing climate change. However, this response depends on political circumstances: Only those in safe seats can change their political agenda toward policies that involve short-term costs for long-term gains. These results highlight the role of electoral incentives in shaping politicians' attitudes toward farsighted policymaking. (JEL D72, Q54, Q58)
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →