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激励人心的选举:黑人市长对教育成就的影响

Elections that inspire: Effects of Black mayors on educational attainment
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Jorge Ikawa、Clarice Martins、Pedro C. Sant’anna、Rogerio Santarrosa

中文摘要

我们研究巴西黑人市长当选对黑人学生教育成就的影响。利用势均力敌选举中的断点回归设计,我们发现,在黑人候选人获胜的市镇,黑人学生更有可能报名参加全国高中考试(ENEM)、进入大学就读并顺利毕业。我们的证据与学生志向发生变化的解释一致:中等教育和高等教育并非市长的主要职责;黑人市长在影响我们所考察结果的政策方面并未表现得更好;且效应对来自公立和私立学校的黑人学生均较强,而对来自公立学校的白人学生则较弱。

Abstract

We study the impact of the election of a Black mayor in Brazil on Black students’ educational attainment. Using a regression discontinuity design in close elections, we find that Black students in municipalities where Black candidates won are more likely to register for the National High School Examination, attend university, and graduate. Our evidence is consistent with changes in students’ aspirations: secondary/tertiary education is not a mayor’s primary responsibility; Black mayors do not perform better in policies that affect our outcomes; and effects are strong for Black students from both public and private schools, while weaker for White students from public schools.
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