鼓舞人心的选举：黑人市长对教育成就的影响

Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Jorge Ikawa", "affiliation": ["Insper"]}, {"name": "Clarice Martins", "affiliation": ["Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing"]}, {"name": "Pedro C. Sant’anna", "affiliation": ["IIT@MIT"]}, {"name": "Rogerio Santarrosa", "affiliation": ["Insper"]}]

中文摘要

我们研究了巴西黑人市长当选对黑人学生受教育程度的影响。利用势均力敌选举中的断点回归设计，我们发现，在黑人候选人胜选的市镇，黑人学生更有可能报名参加全国高中考试、进入大学并顺利毕业。我们的证据与学生抱负的变化相一致：中等/高等教育并非市长的主要职责；黑人市长在影响本文结果变量的政策上并未表现更佳；并且，来自公立和私立学校的黑人学生所受的效应都很强，而来自公立学校的白人学生所受效应则较弱。

Abstract

We study the impact of the election of a Black mayor in Brazil on Black students’ educational attainment. Using a regression discontinuity design in close elections, we find that Black students in municipalities where Black candidates won are more likely to register for the National High School Examination, attend university, and graduate. Our evidence is consistent with changes in students’ aspirations: secondary/tertiary education is not a mayor’s primary responsibility; Black mayors do not perform better in policies that affect our outcomes; and effects are strong for Black students from both public and private schools, while weaker for White students from public schools.