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恐惧的病毒:埃博拉在美国的政治影响

The Virus of Fear: The Political Impact of Ebola in the United States
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2023 · Filipe Campante、Emilio Depetris-Chauvín、Ruben Durante

中文摘要

我们通过考察2014年冲击美国的埃博拉恐慌,研究公众对疾病暴发威胁的焦虑如何影响选民行为。利用美国境内四例确诊病例的确诊时间和地点,我们表明,对埃博拉的担忧加剧导致了民主党得票率和投票率下降,尽管没有证据表明存在普遍的反现任者效应(包括针对奥巴马总统的效应)。选民在移民问题上表现出日益保守的态度,但在其他意识形态色彩浓厚的议题上并非如此。我们的研究结果表明,情绪反应能够对选举产生强烈影响,而这种影响以可以合理认为与特定触发因素相关的议题为中介。

Abstract

We study how public anxiety over the threat of a disease outbreak can affect voter behavior by looking at the Ebola scare that hit the United States in 2014. Exploiting timing and locations of the four cases diagnosed in the country, we show that heightened concern about Ebola led to a lower Democratic vote share and lower turn-out, despite no evidence of a general anti-incumbent effect (including President Obama). Voters displayed increasingly conservative attitudes on immigration, but not on other ideologically charged issues. Our findings indicate that emotional reactions can have a strong electoral impact, mediated by issues plausibly associated with the specific triggering factor. (JEL D72, D91, I12, J15)
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