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法官之威:法院严厉程度、收房风险与抵押贷款及住房市场需求

Judge Dread: Court severity, repossession risk and demand in mortgage and housing markets
The Economic Journal · 2025 · Piero Montebruno、Olmo Silva、Nikodem Szumilo

中文摘要

我们利用地方法官偏好异质性所导致的房屋被收回可能性的差异,研究借款人保护对抵押贷款需求和住房需求的影响。我们构建了一个分析框架,给出了在供给不变的条件下识别收房风险对住房需求和信贷需求影响的条件。在实证分析中,我们利用法院管辖区边界所产生的风险外生变异。我们发现,借款人保护降低一个标准差会使借款额和房价下降4.5%。

Abstract

Abstract We study the impact of borrower protection on mortgage and housing demand using variation in the likelihood that houses are repossessed coming from heterogeneity in preferences of local judges. We develop a framework that provides conditions to identify the impact of repossession risk on housing and credit demand, holding supply fixed. Empirically, we exploit exogenous variation in risk created by boundaries of court catchment areas. We find that a one-standard-deviation decrease in borrower protection decreases borrowing and house prices by 4.5%.
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