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堕胎能否缓解暂时性冲击?

Can Abortion Mitigate Transitory Shocks?
Journal of Human Resources · 2023 · Jaehyun Jung

中文摘要

本文考察越南农村母亲如何通过堕胎应对干旱引发的暂时性收入冲击,以及男孩偏好如何调节此类调整。研究发现,当受影响的母亲无法平滑消费时,其获得堕胎的可能性提高了30%。重要的是,干旱与女性胎儿被堕胎的比例过高相关,这加剧了出生性别比偏向男性的状况。尽管大约两年后出生率的回升表明,干旱的影响主要涉及生育时机,但在男孩偏好下,暂时性冲击可能通过增加“失踪女孩”的数量而产生长期人口后果。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> This paper investigates abortion in response to drought-induced transitory income shocks and how son preference regulates such adjustments for rural mothers in Vietnam. I find that affected mothers were 30 percent more likely to obtain abortions when they were unable to smooth consumption. Importantly, drought is associated with disproportionately more abortions of female fetuses, which exacerbates the male-biased sex ratio at birth. Although a rebound in birth rates after approximately two years suggests that the effects of drought are pertinent to the timing of fertility, transitory shocks under son preference can have long-term demographic consequences by increasing the number of “missing girls”.
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