中文摘要
本文基于美国和墨西哥关税自由化暴露程度的跨地区差异，研究北美自由贸易协定对美国地方就业结果的影响。研究发现，美国关税下调导致暴露程度较高地区的制造业就业人口占劳动年龄人口的比重相对下降（低技能劳动者尤为明显），同时失业率以及某些低薪非制造业行业就业人口占比上升。美国关税自由化造成的就业损失在女性和非白人劳动者中更为严重。美国关税削减还引起了就业任务构成的变化，导致与生产相关的常规型职业就业减少，而抽象型职业就业增加。美国关税自由化导致的制造业就业和总就业收缩集中在南部和中西部人力资本相对较低的地区。虽然墨西哥关税削减对总体人口的制造业就业没有统计显著影响，但确实增加了受过大学教育者的制造业就业。
Abstract
<h3>Abstract</h3> This paper studies the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on U.S. local employment outcomes based on cross-regional variation in exposure to U.S. and Mexico’s tariff liberalization. I find that lower U.S. tariffs led to a relative decline in the share of the working-age population employed in manufacturing (especially among low-skilled workers) in more exposed regions, and increases in unemployment and in the share of the population employed in certain low-pay nonmanufacturing industries. Employment losses due to U.S. tariff liberalization were much larger among female and nonwhite workers. U.S. tariff cuts also induced changes in the task composition of employment, leading to a decline in employment in production-related routine occupations and an increase in abstract occupations. The contraction in manufacturing and total employment as a result of U.S. tariff liberalization was concentrated in parts of the South and Midwest with relatively lower human capital. While Mexico’s tariff cuts did not have a statistically significant impact on manufacturing employment for the population as a whole, they did increase manufacturing employment among individuals with college education.